Who does Bolsonaro listen to under emergency conditions? Building a framework for analyzing informal presidential advisory networks during the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

Despite evidence about the informal advisors of the presidents in Latin America, literature on this topic is still incipient. This article investigates the informational scenario that surrounded the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, from January to April 2020, a period of presidential decision-making on the measures to face the Covid-19 pandemic. In-depth case study of interactions established by the Brazilian president is developed based on data from the Brazilian President’s Daily Diary. Social Network Analysis (SNA) tools are used to analyze this evidence. The findings suggest that the Ministry of Health (MOH) was not the main information channel for the president at the beginning of the pandemic despite its central role in the national governance structure of public health emergencies. In addition, the analysis shows the president's choice to use the structures of the Presidency as main informational support, including strengthening them through unilateral administrative measures. Finally, the results indicate that there is no evidence that the president combined formal and informal advisory as a strategy to access alternative information to the MOH. The findings should be pondered regarding the partly reliable nature of the President’s Daily Diary as a source of relational data. The study provides a conceptual and methodological framework to identify and measure the presidential informal advisory strategy, contributing to the advance of research on presidential advising in Latin America.