All roads lead to Washington? The paths of Latin American countries towards a Free Trade Agreement with the United States (1990-2015)

Abstract

This paper discusses the entry into force of trade agreements between Latin American countries and the United States. The objective is to study paths towards the implementation of a free trade agreement with the world’s greatest power in the period 1990-2015, considering three groups of variables: market reforms, geopolitics of trade agreements and commercial links with the world. The results suggest that market reforms have the greatest explanatory impact on the principal outcome of this study. The research technique used was Event History Analysis, implemented through Cox regression, in order to identify determinants that explain the process. Although this approach has been widely used in the field of international relations, mainly in the study of conflicts or crises, it is novel in the analysis of the entry into force of trade agreements.